Lane Thomas is a Peculiar Trade Option for the Royals (2024)

The Royals have been rumored to be active players in the position player trade market leading up to the July 30th trade deadline. JJ Picollo has already made a significant move in the relief market, trading for Hunter Harvey from Washington in exchange for Cayden Wallace and the 39th overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft (which ended up being Cal catcher Caleb Lomavita).

Likely, Picollo will probably acquire another reliever or two by the Trade Deadline.

The main focus on Royals fans’ minds right now is what position players are on Picollo’s radar, especially ones who could play the outfield and perhaps bat leadoff. The Royals have struggled to get much at the top of the order this season from Maikel Garcia, and Adam Frazier hasn’t been a much better option, as I discussed in a post on Wednesday.

Kansas City has been linked in trade rumors to players likeChicago’s Tommy PhamandMiami’s Jazz Chisholm Jr. Both could solve the Royals’ hitting woes at the top of the lineup. Chisholm would also offer some position versatility, as he is playing second base again (he started as an infielder, primarily at shortstop) after spending most of the past two years in center field.

Another name gaining some steam among Royals circles is Washington’s Lane Thomas, the Nationals’ primary right fielder.

Thomas is having a down year after a breakout in 2023 with the Nationals. Last season, in 682 plate appearances, Thomas hit 28 home runs, scored 101, collected 86 RBI, stole 20 bases, and posted a wRC+ of 109 and fWAR of 3.1. That strong performance made him one of the more popular outfielders in fantasy drafts this past winter.

The 28-year-old outfielder has been dealing with some injury issues in 2024. He missed roughly a month of play after suffering a sprained MCL on April 24th. The injury has affected him in various areas on the field this season.

On the hitting end, in 318 plate appearances, Thomas has stolen 26 bases, six more than his total from a season ago (and in only 72 games, nearly half the mark from last season). However, he has declined in most other categories.

He has only eight home runs, scored 38 runs, and collected 39 RBI. He also is posting a wRC+ of 101 and fWAR of 0.6. Even though there are still roughly 60 or so games to go in the regular season, based on the projections via Fangraphs, it seems unlikely that Thomas will match what he did in 2023.

On a defensive end, Thomas has also seen a significant regression from a season ago.

After posting a DRS of +1 and FRV of +2 in RF in 2023, he has posted a -11 DRS and -6 FRV this season. Those numbers are far worse than those of Renfroe, MJ Melendez, and even Nelson Velazquez, who have all seen time as regular corner outfielders in Kansas City this season.

Thus, based on this rough statistical season, should the Royals avoid pursuing Thomas over the next week?

Or does Thomas have more value than the surface-level metrics may indicate?

Results Down But Positive Progress for Thomas at the Plate

Thomas had a lot of buzz in the fantasy draft season but was also a polarizing outfielder for the fantasy baseball community. While his stats were impressive from 2023, some underlying trends had fantasy analysts torn on Thomas’ outlook for 2024.

Even though he posted a wOBA of .334 last year, his xwOBA was only .319, a 15-point difference. Furthermore, he struck out 25.8% of the time last season and only had a BB/K ratio of 0.20. His Statcast sliders also looked underwhelming from 2023, especially in hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity.

Therefore, fantasy baseball fans who were down on Thomas before the season started have been somewhat justified. That said, while Thomas’s results are down, he has shown progress in his plate discipline and batted-ball data in 2024.

Here’s a look at Thomas’ Stacast sliders from this season:

He has seen positive growth in most categories, particularly significant gains in chase, whiff, K, and BB rates. His average exit velocity on batted balls is also up 0.7%, his hard-hit rate is up 0.9%, and his .331 xwOBA this year is 20 points higher than his actual wOBA. He has declined in barrel rate (7.3%, down 2.3%) and LA Sweet-Spot% (33.3%; a 3.5% decline).

In terms of his PLV rolling chart data, his contact ability is quite similar to what he did a year ago, which Royals fans can see in the image comparison below:

His Contact Ability+ has seen some regression this year, but he’s still been above the league average regarding his season Contact Ability+ mark.

The Decision Value+ and Power+ trends and differences are much more significant. Here are his Decision Value+ charts from 2024 and 2023.

In 2023, Thomas showed excellent decision-making in his at-bats early on and regressed heavily over the year. His Decision Value+ touched the 25th percentile multiple times and dipped below that on two occasions.

This season, his Decision Value+ has a season average around the 75th percentile, and he’s been above that mark for most of the season. He had one big swoon at the beginning of July. However, he’s bounced back since then and recently touched the 90th percentile in Decision Value+.

Now, let’s look at his Power+ rolling chart data.

Thomas’s Power+ has been declining sharply since the beginning of July. After being above the 75th percentile for most of the year, he has seen a sharp dive in this category since the beginning of July. That isn’t an encouraging sign.

On the other hand, he went through a similar regression in 2023 at the start of July, which lasted until the beginning of August. However, after August 1st, his Power+ skyrocketed.

Therefore, this may be just a power trend Thomas goes through in the middle of the season, and he could be due for a strong finish in August and September. That could convince the Royals that Thomas will have better days in the next few months.

The xwOBA rolling chart data could also help persuade them, as he’s shown more consistency in this category this year compared to 2023.

On a hitting end, it’s been a disappointing year for Thomas with the Nationals.

That said, the process is much better in 2024 than in 2023. Thus, the results could come to fruition once he makes his way west to Kansas City.

Thomas’ Defense is a Concern

Thomas would likely move around in the corner outfield spots if he came to the Royals. He would probably push Renfroe to more days at DH, and he could spell MJ in left field when the Royals face left-handed starting pitchers.

However, as mentioned earlier in this post, Thomas’s defense this season has been pretty atrocious. His DRS and FRV metrics are rough, and his OAA, which was slightly below average at -2 in 2023, is down to -8 this year.

Based on his OAA chart data, it seemed like Thomas was at least more effective on plays from his normal positioning last season. The red box is a sign that he was effective on plays in the outfield when he started in that position before the ball was hit.

In Thomas’ OAA chart, that red box from a year ago is blue this season. That is a sign of significant defensive regression.

It doesn’t matter where Thomas is playing positionally in the correct field position. He’s been consistently costing the Nationals outs with his glove.

Based on his jump and read data, the table below shows what issues contribute to Thomas’ struggles on the field this season.

Some Royals fans who saw Thomas’ decline thought his reaction and route-taking contributed to his defensive struggles. He has seen a decrease in route-taking this year, as he was 0.5 seconds worse than a year ago. However, his reaction has been 0.3 seconds faster this season compared to 2023.

The biggest problem has been his “burst.” It is 1.3 seconds worse than a season ago. According to MLB Statcast, “burst” is a “Jump” metric component that measures an outfielder’s speed in the outfield.

It is interesting to see Thomas perform so poorly in this area, especially since he has showcased 93rd-percentile speed and has 26 stolen bases this year.

That said, I wonder if he still feels the effects of his sprained MCL from earlier in the year. He isn’t moving as quickly to get to batted balls as in 2023. The reality could be that Thomas may not be 100% in the field until the season’s conclusion.

That may deflate his trade value, making him a more tolerable trade target for the Royals than Pham (who’s a pure rental) or Chisholm (who may require a significant prospect in return).

Furthermore, this situation could make Thomas an intriguing target for the Royals in the long term, especially since he has one more year of arbitration after this season. His defensive performance could be significantly boosted in 2025 if he fully recovers.

Add that with his better hitting approach from this year, and Thomas could be a trade candidate who produces down the stretch and be a crucial part of the Royals lineup next year.

Final Thoughts on Thomas

Based on a recent Nats Report (an independent Washington Nationals blog) survey, it sounds like Nationals fans are expecting Thomas to be dealt by the Trade Deadline.

On Wednesday, the Nationals were 47-54 and 16.5 games behind in the NL East. Thus, it is sensible for the Nationals to be sellers at the Trade Deadline.

Furthermore, with outfield prospects Dylan Crews and Robert Hassell waiting in Triple-A and Double-A, respectively, it is also likely that the Nationals will start to clear space in the outfield now while getting something in return.

The Phillies and Pirates have been the primary ones connected to Thomas. That said, Thomas is a hitter who could fill in right away in the Royals outfield and at the top of the batting order.

At first, I was not entirely keen on the Royals acquiring Thomas, especially considering he is 28 and performing poorly defensively. Kauffman is not a great place for a struggling defensive outfielder, especially midseason.

I don’t think the defense will get much better if he comes to Kansas City, mostly because I think something is nagging that’s contributing to his lackluster performance. That said, Thomas is such a good athlete that he can make up for this defensive regression in other areas of his game, particularly on the hitting and baserunning end.

Thomas is showing progress on the hitting end. I think the Royals, or any interested team, sees that and is willing to take a flier on Thomas with the idea that the process will finally lead to results in August and September.

The big question, of course, is how much that “flier” will cost a team, particularly the Royals.

The Royals must acquire more firepower in the lineup, especially at the leadoff position. Thomas certainly can fill that need and give the Royals some additional speed on the basepaths.

However, is Thomas worth a significant prospect package? Will his trade value be the same as Pham or cheaper?

That’s an unknown question at this time.

If the Pirates and Phillies are also interested in Thomas’ services, the bidding for Thomas may be more expensive than Royals fans would like to imagine.

Photo Credit: John Bazemore|AP