We have precisely one week of SEC data to digest. So naturally you’re asking for a prediction I’m sure to get wrong …
Dear Andy,
Looking into your crystal ball, what will be the biggest headline out of the SEC after the games this weekend? — Matthew
This is the part where I crow about my prediction that Mississippi State would torch LSU’s defense with coach Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense. Oh, wait. I didn’t predict that at all.
Advertisem*nt
I thought Leach could have success in the SEC because this will be the most talented roster he’s ever coached, but I also qualified that all summer by pointing out that the competition will be greater than what he faced in the Big 12 or the Pac-12. Put bluntly, I though Mississippi State could score some points, but I didn’t think the Bulldogs would go into Baton Rouge and light up the sky.
We know that the Auburn-Georgia result will dominate the conversation because those are two premium programs, but short of Auburn winning in a blowout, I’m not sure there is a possible result between the hedges that would be as shocking as Mississippi State quarterback K.J. Costello throwing for 623 yards at Tiger Stadium. The aforementioned Auburn blowout probably would require a complete meltdown by the Georgia offense, which looked possible during an ugly first half at Arkansas. But once former walk-on Stetson Bennett replaced starter D’Wan Mathis, everything ran more smoothly and the Bulldogs gained nearly seven yards a play.
If Bennett leads the Bulldogs to a win Saturday, we’ll probably be buzzing about him. He could have played in the FCS on scholarship out of high school, but he chose to walk on at Georgia. Then, in part because he’d given Georgia’s defense fits while impersonating Baker Mayfield before the Rose Bowl following the 2017 season, Bennett went to a junior college with the hope of earning an FBS scholarship. He did, but not in the way he expected. He had an offer from Louisiana Lafayette, but when Justin Fields told Georgia coaches of his intent to transfer shortly after the 2018 season ended, the Bulldogs used the newly available scholarship to sign Bennett. That same week, Georgia flipped Mathis from Ohio State — in part because Mathis knew Fields was coming to Columbus and did the math on when he might see the field sooner.
Of course, if Mathis winds up back at QB for the Bulldogs and leads a win, he’s got an incredible story in his own right. He had emergency surgery last year on a cyst in his brain and missed the season. He worked his way back and wound up the opening-day starter. That first half in Fayetteville was an abject disaster, so if Mathis can correct those issues, it would make for quite the redemption arc.
Advertisem*nt
But if we’re looking for shocking results that will make us question our offseason assumptions, we need to examine two games between SEC East teams.
Conventional wisdom tells us Florida will squash South Carolina and Tennessee will beat Missouri — especially because both favorites are at home — but we’re basing those working theories off one week of data and discounting the fact that 18- to 22-year-olds often don’t perform as expected as well as the possibility that home-field advantage may not matter at all with limited crowds.
Florida beat Ole Miss 51-35, but we knew the Rebels’ defensive roster was depleted. The 35 points the Gators gave up could be a concern, but they gave up those points playing without defensive tackle Kyree Campbell, safety Brad Stewart and defensive end Jeremiah Moon. (Plus safety Shawn Davis was ejected for targeting only a few plays into the game.) So perhaps there is no need to worry about Florida’s defense, but allowing that many points against South Carolina could be a problem. The Gameco*cks lost 31-27 to Tennessee, but much of the Volunteers’ offensive success came following a groin injury to 6-foot-5 cornerback Israel Mukuamu. South Carolina coach Will Muschamp said earlier this week that Mukuamu was moving around well at practice. So we could see two defenses Saturday that look very different than what we saw last week, and that could produce a different kind of game.
Meanwhile, Missouri opened against Alabama. That’s bad enough, but the Tigers also played without seven players because of positive COVID-19 tests or contact tracing concerns. Wednesday, Tigers coach Eli Drinkwitz called the SEC’s COVID-19 reporting “kind of a free-for-all.” In other words, that information isn’t always being shared internally within the league. That means any team could conceivably show up to a game seriously shorthanded. Missouri was the hardest hit last week, but it could be someone else this week. Meanwhile, Alabama isn’t the greatest barometer for a more mortal team. The Tigers may be closer to the Volunteers than we think.
If either of those road underdogs pulls an upset Saturday, we’ll be buzzing. If Auburn beats Georgia and both those underdogs win, we may have to rethink the SEC East entirely.
Advertisem*nt
Dear Andy,
Can a Pac-12 team make the Playoff, or would there need to be an expansion? — Jason
There won’t be an expansion this year, but at least Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott tried. ESPN’s Heather Dinich reported Wednesday that Scott proposed an eight-team Playoff for this season only. That proposal was voted down, though.
Expanding the Playoff to guarantee his league a seat at the table is something Scott should have been pushing for these past few years, but better late than never. It’s also an idea Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby should get behind, because even though his league has made the Playoff in four of six seasons, only one program (Oklahoma) has represented the league. The Sooners are 0-1 in Big 12 play after losing at home to Kansas State, and while losing to the Wildcats didn’t keep the Sooners from winning the Big 12 or making the Playoff last year, Bowlsby should be concerned that his marquee program is already dinged and that his league went 0-3 against Sun Belt Conference teams in the most significant nonconference results there will be this season.
To finally get to Jason’s question, a Pac-12 team can make the Playoff. But it probably would have to convince the selection committee that it is better than the Big 12 champ or the second-best ACC, Big Ten or SEC team.
That will be difficult with no basis for comparison and a prevailing belief that the Pac-12 is the weakest of the Power 5 conferences. If Oregon had the chance to face Ohio State — as originally planned — it could have helped give us a better idea how the best of the Pac-12 stacked up against the best of the Big Ten. USC-Notre Dame would have been helpful as well. Absent those results, only sheer dominance from the Pac-12’s best team (we’re all assuming Oregon, but the Ducks have lost a lot to opt-outs) would put that team in the bracket. A one-loss champ from the Big 12 or runner-up from the ACC, Big Ten or SEC probably would get the benefit of the doubt for reasons that no one on the committee will be able to adequately explain.
That’s why I suggested Scott should advocate for an expanded Playoff and why I’m glad he did. His league probably will get the worst of the judgement calls this year, and he needed to try to correct that even if the other commissioners weren’t on board.
Dear Andy,
Why do Texas, Michigan, and Texas A&M get “the benefit of the doubt” every year with regard to how good they are? For the past 10 years they have all finished with 3-5 losses (a few exceptions). Wisconsin has continually been a more dominant team, yet it gets very little respect. — Eric
Wisconsin was ranked ahead of all those teams in this season’s preseason Associated Press poll. Wisconsin was ranked ahead of all those teams in the 2018 preseason Associated Press poll. Wisconsin was ranked ahead of all those teams in the 2017 preseason Associated Press poll. Wisconsin was ranked ahead of all those teams in the 2015 preseason Associated Press poll. Wisconsin was ranked ahead of all those teams in the 2014 preseason Associated Press poll.
So the Badgers have been ranked ahead of all three teams Eric mentioned in the preseason poll in five of the past seven years. Methinks someone is trying to invent disrespect where none exists.
Advertisem*nt
Dear Andy,
The Gators haven’t had a 1,000-yard receiver since 2002. Can Kyle Pitts do it as a tight end in a 10-game season? — Andrew in Boulder, Colo.
Taylor Jacobs is the answer to a trivia question that is particularly frustrating for the Gators. But Andrew is on to something here. The 6-6, 246-pound Pitts absolutely could hit quadruple digits in a 10-game season. He caught eight passes for 170 yards and four touchdowns against Ole Miss, and QB Kyle Trask’s favorite target should be able to keep putting up big numbers.
Pitts came into the season as a possible NFL first-round prospect, and his first game only confirmed what he showed last season. Although he’s big enough and strong enough to be a tight end, he’s really more of a freakishly huge receiver. That makes him a matchup nightmare. He’s too big for most cornerbacks or safeties to cover and too fast for most linebackers to cover. Florida can move Pitts all over the field and exploit those mismatches frequently.
Opponents could try to double-team Pitts, but Trevon Grimes, Kadarius Toney and Jacob Copeland are good enough to make teams pay for focusing only on Pitts. That trio should keep defenses honest, which should allow Pitts to feast on most Saturdays.
Dear Andy,
Thanks for picking up the “Necessary Roughness” question last week, and as promised here’s one for this week.
We get our first doubts about Coach Gennero during the first game when he stubbornly sticks to his system rather than adapting his play calling to fit his personnel. Normally, that’s a disaster, but Mike Leach just pulled off a historic day running his basic plays.
How much of what we saw in Baton Rouge on Saturday was the Air Raid, and how much was it Leach working with more talent than he’s ever had? At Washington State, Leach was powerless against teams like Washington with overpowering defensive talent. Does he have enough material at Mississippi State right now to succeed against everyone but Alabama? (We know only Paul Blake could throw for 500 on Bama in the Air Raid.) — Hugh in Dallas
The difference between Ed “Straight Arrow” Generro, who is an objectively terrible coach, and Leach,who is an objectively excellent one, is that Leach designed an offense that takes what the defense will give it. Generro’s offense can only work if his team can overpower the defense at the point of attack. He called Brown Right 22 Trap the Texas State Fighting Armadillos’ “bread and butter play,” and he stubbornly insisted on calling it even after the results had proven it would fail. Generro’s defensive coordinator Wally Rigg was far more open to experimentation, and it was under Rigg’s leadership that the Armadillos upset the by-God No. 1 Texas Colts in the season finale. Generro’s best contribution the entire season was not showing up for the biggest game of the season and letting a more talented coach lead the team.
The answer to the Mississippi State portion of Hugh’s question — How much of the Bulldogs’ success was the Air Raid and how much was it Leach working with a better top-to-bottom roster? — is a little of both.
But I would argue that Washington didn’t hamstring the Air Raid only because of “overpowering defensive talent.” Washington also schemed up the Air Raid by sending fewer rushers (usually three) and playing zone with the other eight defenders. The idea was to cover longer and force Washington State’s quarterback to make a mistake. As Seth Galina of Pro Football Focus pointed out this week, LSU played mostly man coverage against the Bulldogs. Perhaps this was a result of losing All-America cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. because of a medical episode Friday night, or perhaps this was first-year coordinator Bo Pelini’s plan all along. Either way, the Tigers got torched.
Don’t be surprised to find that most SEC coordinators will try to copy what the Huskies did. But also don’t be surprised if Leach’s team can adjust better. If Vita Vea and Greg Gaines are two of the three rushing against the Washington State offensive line, combating that defense by going to the ground isn’t easy. But with tailback Kylin Hill and the offensive line Leach has at Mississippi State, teams will have to attack the Bulldogs with three down linemen at their own peril. Because against most teams, that group can win five-on-three at the line of scrimmage even if it’s facing one or two monsters on the defensive line. It’s going to be a fascinating season as some of the brightest defensive minds and most talented defensive players try to slow an offense working with more tools than it has ever had before.
Advertisem*nt
A Random Ranking
Andrew in Boulder would like me to rank streaming services. This seems especially relevant since it feels like 20 new ones have debuted this year.
1. Netflix
2. Hulu
3. Disney Plus
4. HBO Max
5. Amazon Prime Video
6. ESPN Plus
7. Apple TV+
8. Peaco*ck
1,999,547. Quibi
(Photo of Stetson Bennett: University of Georgia / Collegiate Images via Getty Images)
Andy Staples covers college football and all barbecue-related issues for The Athletic. He covered college football for Sports Illustrated from 2008-19. He also hosts "The Andy Staples Show." Follow Andy on Twitter @Andy_Staples
